Published on 15.11.2021 12:30

The Euro managed to end the day slightly higher on Friday after falling to a new 14 month low against the greenback on the back of disappointing data from the US and better than expected business numbers from the Eurozone.

The latest Industrial Production figures for September from the Eurozone hit the market at 5.2%, against analysts’ expectations for a reading of 4.1% while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November fell to 66.8, lower than the 71.7 number in October, and marks its lowest level since November 2011.

As we enter today’s European trading session, The Euro is continuing to suffer from the perception that the European Central Bank will not be tightening monetary policy until well after some of the other major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve which will see the yield widen between the Euro and US dollar.

In March next year, the ECB will likely end its pandemic emergency purchase program, or PEPP, and all of the central banks bond-buying programs would likely end shortly after but in the words of ECB President Christine Lagarde, it is “very unlikely” that there will be a rate hike next year which is exactly opposite of what the Fed is planning to do and some say they may deliver as many as 3 rate hikes next year.

On today’s chart we can see that the EUR/USD currency pair is stuck in a sideways mode and with no major economic news due out today from the Eurozone or the US we may see the pair remain rangebound while the market awaits GDP figures from Europe and retail sales figures from the US tomorrow.

In any case there is not much hope that the Euro will make any significant gains against the US dollar this week and the chance of further losses is highly likely


Andrew Masters

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